Tropical Depression Eighteen formed over the Caribbean Sea Monday.
The National Hurricane Center's official forecast has the depression strengthening into Tropical Storm Rafael in the coming hours as it passes to the west of Jamaica.
The system could be a hurricane as it moves over western Cuba by mid-week.
The forecast track takes the storm into the Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. "However, it should be noted that the track forecast over the Gulf of Mexico is of low confidence," said the NHC.
Cooler waters and wind shear could play a role in the system's strength and structure as it approaches the Gulf Coast. Residents are advised to stay updated.